Understanding Vanish from Sight

Someone you respect asks a question to the tune of “I don't get it”. You answer it, maybe they just missed it this time. Several someones you respect ask the same “I don't get it” question, and it’s probably a public gap in understanding. 

Over the last couple weeks, between accomplished (read - washed) pros and the Lords of Limited Podcast, that “it” people don’t get is Vanish from Sight.

Vanish from Sight is the 2nd best performing Blue common in Duskmourn, and it's tied for 6th across all commons with Glassworks. It’s dropped a bit in the most recent samples to just being in the mix of other great commons, but it has it the rarified tier of commons that matter in the era of Play Booster draft. 

But it isn't just Vanish from Sight. In every Play Booster release the good Unsummon or Griptide variant has been one of the top 3 blue commons, from the clearly pushed Deem Inferior to the bare minimum of Unauthorized Exit.

Compare that to the preceding decades of Draft Boosters. Misleading Motes from Wilds of Eldraine was nearly unplayable. There were shining Griptide moments through the years, like the time it was reprinted in Theros.... and matched Vanish from Sight's current standing. Theros was a format based around dumping piles of mana and auras into individual threats, Griptide's historic peak, and that's about as good as Vanish from Sight in a format with few of those upsides going for it. (Just don't ask me how often I look at the MTGGoldfish Magic Online Limited data from that era to know how to find the Theros stats)

So..... why did bounce get so good?

Context Matters

In the interest of good writing, we can chalk up some of this upside to a year of good format context for bounce spells.

Blue isn't a true delirium color in Duskmourn, but you will end up with delirium cards in your blue decks. Surveil on Vanish from Sight helps with that, but weirdly so does instant. With blue being an enchantment color, instants and sorceries aren't as free types in graveyard as you would assume.

Disguise and manifest dread do give you more opportunities for Unauthorized Exit or Vanish from Sight to eat an extra turn of mana when your opponent flips something up.

Outlaws of Thunder Junction had big rares to handle, but also had common Elemental tokens that got truly removed by Jailbreak Scheme.

Bloomburrow.... yea I've got nothing and Dire Downdraft is still the best blue common. There's some context, but not a ton.

One trend that might tie some of this together is that this last year has been a hot streak for non-Prowess blue tempo. Simic has broken out of being a long time loser between Frogs, Manifest Dread, and Eldrazi, the Dimir decks have biased tempo, and Azorius has had some good times too. 

But you could equally argue this is a result of blue control decks struggling in the Play Booster era, and I would argue that the same thing making blue control worse is what has made Vanish into Sight better.

The Cards Are Just Good

The worst 3 performing red commons in Duskmourn are Ripchain Razorkin, Beadhead Beastie, and Rampaging Soulrager. Want to know what they have in common?

Good when resolved. If you just ignore these, they will brawl through other creatures and just kill you.

Imagine what their good cards look like.

Murder used to be the best common in a set because the 15th creature in someone's deck was dogshit. It was a 4/4 no abilities, and then the other person would have a 2/2 and a 2/3, and once you hit Turn 6 half the battlefield would be cards waiting to do something. Your removal aimed at their one Phantom Monster that broke this paradigm was a game changer.

Now they just ready up and fire the next relevant threat from their hand. 

So if they redraw their threat who cares? It's basically the same as whatever they were doing before. The gap between Griptide and Murder is as small as ever, and suddenly your Griptide looks a lot better on metrics like always being an instant, not costing double black, and so on.

The card disadvantage of a classic bounce spell matters less in this era. So many threats are two-for-ones that you rarely see one player just run out of stuff to do. If anything, card disadvantage comes across as a lack of options. The player with four cards in hand that got to surveil twice probably gets to double spell nicely on Turn 6, the other player might just have a lone four drop. Unsummon effects play perfect in these optionality games. 

Then from there we can talk about all the upsides of Griptide and Unsummon effects. The times you catch their combat trick on the cheap, the times you save your own creature, the times Vanish from Sight clears a non-creature permanent on a key turn. The times you are just playing a color combination that lacks the uncommon removal depth that red or black offers, so you are happy with any solid way to answer a permanent. 

There are still going to be sets where the "good bounce spell" underperforms. It's a sorcery. Blue isn't good. It's just a weird Unsummon with bad context. But it's 2024, it's Play Booster draft, and the bar has clearly been raised. Adjust your expectations.