Less Practical Magic: Ravnica Allegiance Draft #1

Quicker post this week going over my first Magic Online Ravnica Allegiance draft. I ended up going 1-2 with this, so I want to analyze what might have gone wrong.

The full draft log is below, but the short version is that I started Orzhov, quickly started taking Simic or Gruul cards avoiding Azorius due to passing multiple Azorius Skyguard, but an Imperious Oligarch wheeled and I moved hard into Orzhov and ended up fighting over a medium deck.

My win was against one of the other Orzhov drafters in my pod. I think they were the player on my left pack one and they kinda meandered into getting cut in it? The losses were to two really powerful multi-color decks, one of which literally just ground me down with Clear the Mind and Prying Eyes because none of my cards could attack into Concordia Pegasus. Ok, some could but they got Lawmage's Binding'ed.

There's three things that could be right based on this.

-Orzhov is baseline at a disadvantage against multi-color decks because it is trying to out attrition the pile of good cards and powerful card draw. I don't think this is an unreasonable take.

-Because the format is a bit more flexible than Guilds of Ravnica, I should have just taken one of the early Azorius Skyguards as a signal. Even if I am cut pack two I can bridge the gap to Esper or Bant.

-Wheeling Imperious Oligarch was an anomaly and I should have paid more attention to all the packs without black or white cards. I had the exact opposite experience at the RIW Prerelease Draft Invitational though that turned out well (about an hour into this video), but notably there other black cards came around and I had previously taken two Orzhov Guildgates. The two missing black cards should have been a sign if I had any doubts.

I'm assuming not picking up on this third point well was my failure. I do have a solid methodology on tracking wheels usually, but I really wasn't implementing it in these early drafts. Considering that directional signals are so important in guild sets and trickier to parse out of multicolored cards, I should go back to doing this:

In general, trying to figure out what seven cards everyone else is going to take is a lost cause. Saying "I think this random card will wheel" is not reliable pack one unless it's some marginal sideboard effect.

Instead, focus on the general contents of the pack by color. Remembering a few numbers is pretty easy, then on the way back see what was taken. You can also try to think of the relative quality of cards across those colors to see if people are dipping into mediocre cards, implying a color is fairly contested. On the flip side, if the only cards of a color are really good and they don't wheel it means nothing. Feel free to discount actually terrible cards from this, like Deface.

Pack 1 pick 1:

My Pick:

I don't think this is especially close. Pestilent Spirit is basically impossible to block, trades up, and has the marginal upside of the spell-deathtouch ability. I think Azorius Skyguard is the second best option, followed by the other multi-colored cards Clan Guildmage then Imperious Oligarch.

Checking the color spread: W-1, U-1, B-2, R-3, G-2, Multi 3. It feels like there's no chance any of those multicolored cards wheels, and the white card not wheeling isn't a big signal.

Pack 1 pick 2:

My Pick:

Another easy pick. Just the best removal in a format populated by many powerful enchantments.

Card counts: W-1, U-2, B-3, R-3 (but they suck), G-2

Pack 1 pick 3:

My Pick:

Grotesque Demise lines up with my early picks. With an uncommon and rare missing, it's hard to read Azorius Skyguard as a big signal, and I'm not even 100% sure it is better.

Pack 1 pick 4:

My Pick:

Again I don't know if Sunder Shaman is actually better than Azorius Skyguard, but after passing two other Azorius Skyguards I didn't want to fight over the guild when another reasonable option existed.

Pack 1 pick 5:

My Pick:

I think I was wrong to downgrade Skatewing Spy in my prerelease reevaluation post. It sure isn't Abzan Falconer, but it's close enough. I like it better than Incubation // Incongruity if I branch away to the Gruul-Simic corner, and I think both are better than taking an Orzhov Guildgate and sticking with my colors.

Pack 1 pick 6:

My Pick:

I should have taken Senate Griffin. Dead Revels is pretty good in Orzhov, but Senate Griffin is not significantly worse and is much more likely to make my deck if do something like swap to Simic.

Pack 1 pick 7:

My Pick:

Same pick as before, better than Slimebind by a lot.

Pack 1 pick 8:

My Pick:

At this point I'm dipping into Simic. I guess worth noting none of the prior Guildgates were taken.

Pack 1 pick 9:

My Pick:

Orzhov is open, but black isn't? Oddly Undercity Scavenger and Ill-gotten Inheritance are both gone but this isn't.

Checking the color spread: was W-1, U-1, B-2, R-3, G-2, Multi 3. Now.... U-1, R-2, G-2? While we did pass a Clan Guildmage, it looks like red and green are fairly open. Black is definitely contested, and Undercity Scavenger disappearing should be a hint someone is going Orzhov as it needs the afterlife sacrifice fodder (seven mana with Act of Treason is a no-go).

I think that given the knowledge my pack two white seems like a disaster after passing all the Azorius Skyguards and that black is just going to be non-existent I should have taken Steeple Creeper or Faerie Duelist and just forced my way into Simic, but without a real multi-color signpost anywhere previously I was uncertain.

Pack 1 pick 10:

My Pick:

Possible two-for-one trick, sure.

Card counts: were W-1, U-2, B-3, R-3 (but they suck), G-2
Card counts: U-1, B-1, R-1 (but they suck), G-2

Jeez I should have pushed into Simic.

Pack 1 pick 11:

My Pick:

I've enjoyed this as a blocker against Gruul.

Pack 1 pick 12:

My Pick:

Generic six drop that isn't much worse than other sixes.

Pack 1 pick 13:

My Pick:

Don't need two sixes, Orzhov can have a sacrifice subtheme.

Pack 1 pick 14:

My Pick:

Pack 1 pick 15:

My Pick:

Pack 2 pick 1:

My Pick:

Not great but reasonable removal over not great but reasonable creatures (Carrion Imp and Debtor's Transport)

Pack 2 pick 2:

My Pick:

This is a reasonable finisher, as many people have found out. I think I should have just taken the splashable removal spell or Senate Guildmage as a high payoff card, but I was afraid of Azorius being cut and not having a second reason to splash the color.

Pack 2 pick 3:

My Pick:

Not phenomenal, merely very very good. Should be obvious to take your CCDD costed uncommon in guild.

Pack 2 pick 4:

My Pick:

Very splashable finisher over..... basically nothing? Arrester's Zeal feels replaceable in Orzhov because all the creatures are replaceable and you aren't saving a relevant body with it. Also your giant stacks of removal mean using it to kill something bigger matters less.

Pack 2 pick 5:

My Pick:

I'm much happier with this six drop than Watchful Giant, especially with Dead Revels. I think you can argue for Concordia Pegasus or Bring to Trial though as I have a replacement level six drop already so the small upgrade matters less.

Pack 2 pick 6:

My Pick:

Pretty sure this is wrong and that Senate Griffin is better. I'm locked Orzhov enough that I don't need the Guildgate, even with Basillica Bell-haunt's mana requirements.

Pack 2 pick 7:

My Pick:

I like the low drop that trades up more than a really conditional trick, especially when I already have conditional spells like Dead Revels and Ill-gotten Inheritance in my draft already.

Pack 2 pick 8:

My Pick:

Pretty happy to play a two drop that buries aggressive and evasive opponents in races.

Pack 2 pick 9:

My Pick:

Already have six drops, don't need more.

Pack 2 pick 10:

My Pick:

Also already have five drop blockers (two Catacomb Crocodile), so better six drops it is.

Pack 2 pick 11:

My Pick:

Haazda Officer is a really mediocre three drop. Orzhov Racketeers is a really reasonable five drop that layers well with my other afterlife cards.

Pack 2 pick 12:

My Pick:

Maybe I'll splash?

Pack 2 pick 13:

My Pick:

Pack 2 pick 14:

My Pick:

Pack 2 pick 15:

My Pick:

Pack 3 pick 1: