Sunday, January 13, 2019

First Pick at Ravnica Allegiance - Big Trends, Rakdos, Orzhov

Ranking

For card-by-card rankings, reference my full spreadsheet linked in this tweet:


A quick note relative to other rankings. I'm much more interested in figuring out which C to B level cards are better than each other, as those distinctions help you fill a deck with above replacement cards and actually read signals. I care less about whether a mediocre card is a C- or D+ or whether a rare better than the best uncommons is a A- or A+. So here are the adjusted metrics.

D to C-: Degrees of cards I would rather cut.
C: Not usually cutting it from a deck, but not exciting to have.
C+ and B-: Various degrees of better than replacement, a deck full of these is great as it beats opponents drawing more replacement level cards.
B to B+: Distinctly better cards that really impact a game more than filler.
A- to A: Great uncommons that extremely difficult to beat, best rares, etc.


Big Trends


Sizing


-Ground creatures largely follow a 2/2, 3/2, 3/3, 4+/4+ progression from two to five mana. This all points to everything low side trading, then getting bricked by the actual big things. Things really jump after hitting 4/4, so I'm unsure if 5 toughness is really that much more important than 4.

-There are a ton of four drops across all the guilds, and so many of them are mediocre and interchangeable. Anything that isn't miles above expectations is not a priority.

- There aren't many two drops and even fewer really good ones. Take the above par ones highly.


-There's a lot of strong seven drops, but not a lot of ways to push you to them with card draw or ramp. I can't tell if there's some weird deck here or just a bunch of bad cards.

-Afterlife Spirit tokens are the main punish for 1 toughness creatures. There aren't as many x/1s or Spirit tokens as you would expect, but the lineup is still bad.


-Air creatures largely start at 1/1 Spirit tokens, 2/3s for 4, 3/3s for 5+. They trade down about 1 mana for ground creatures, but they all battle into Spirits fine.

Combat Tricks



-There are a lot of combat tricks intended to win trades, not many that really let a small threat battle through a bigger one. They are also in non-overlapping guild colors, unlike Guilds of Ravnica where Boros and Selesnya shared a bunch. Be wary of getting into even combats when they have open mana, but feel comfortable blocking down a smaller thing with a bigger one.


-There are three tricks that untap things: Stony Strength, Rally to Battle, and Justicar's Portal, plus a few things that kill tapped creatures or flash in blockers. None of these cards is great, but attacking into open mana and tapped creatures is a risk.

Removal




-Removal is harder to find in this set, especially for big creatures. The mono-color removal is either limited in scope or clunky, sometimes between the two. The really good removal is multicolored, so expect to take it early and even splash it.

-The key number on removal is three, both power and toughness oddly. A 4/4 is safe from many things, being 4/3 or 3/4 adds weaknesses to black and red commons.

Guilds and Mechanics

-The Ravnica Allegiance mechanics are way less linear than Guilds of Ravnica. Mentor, convoke, undergrowth are all default linear, surveil ended up that way with the payoffs, and even jump-start promoted a linear spells matter deck. None of the Ravnica Allegiance mechanics really ended up that way, even spectacle. There's smaller synergy packages for sure, but you aren't really pushing all in on anything allowing your decks to be more flexible.

-Afterlife pushes people away from trading a bit.




-Rakdos has a small four power payoff thread, but most of the good 4 power creatures are green. This seems like a Jund-y deal. 

-Gruul has a ton of five drops. Same rules as four drops apply: if it's not uniquely great you will have something random to fill the space.


Rakdos



-Enabling spectacle is really not worth spending full cards. The sure enablers are really bad on their own, and the result is only amazing on a couple cards.

-You have a couple ways to kill a large blocker, but they are definitely at a premium. There isn't a Sure Strike. Draft them highly, don't waste them.

-I'm not quite sure what the Rakdos creatures are trying to accomplish. They just kinda trade and that's it. I think the archetype might be a bigger deck than it lets on at first glance.

Top Commons
1. Get the Point - Just good kills anything removal.
2. Grotesque Demise - More likely to kill a big 3/5 blocker than other "small removal"
3. Skewer the Critics - Double spell potential of spectacle is overrated here, mostly good when racing a flier. Still removal.
4. Consign to the Pit - Slightly worse kills anything removal.
5. Blade Juggler - At least this random dork is good to trade off.
6. Plague Wight - Reasonable two drop that trades up to most four drops.
7. Scorchmark - Kills less than you think, especially versus various 2/3 fliers.
8. Burning-Tree Vandal - Random three drop that trades off at marginal profit. Not exciting.
Honorable Mentions - Rubblebelt Recluse

Top Uncommons
1. Rakdos Firewheeler - Ravenous Chupacabra in reverse. Kills the low drop, then battles hard to kill the big thing.
2. Dagger Caster - The combo with Bladebrand, a common that cycles if you need to and is underwhelming without this card, is too easy. Most of the removal also doesn't stop things like this at instant speed. Just a fine card that randomly kills all their creatures.
3. Clamor Shaman - One of the ways to actually profitably brawl with piles of smaller stuff. This effect always overperforms.
4. Cult Guildmage - Making your opponent discard their hand early is a good way to win games, just a good two drop.
5. Orzhov Enforcer - Another good two drop, not a lot beyond the basic rate with this one.
Honorable Mentions - Flames of the Raze-boar, Clear the Stage, both of which give specific interchangeable creatures purpose.


Orzhov


-Orzhov has a ton of ways to force exchanges and benefit from them. Black has the most removal, and the white removal is actually really good. Some of your removal taxes your chump/sacrifice fodder or life, so incidental life gain is useful on top of incidental tokens. As mentioned in the spreadsheet, Dead Revels is great here with afterlife. 

-Orzhov does not have a lot of good finishers, so random big fliers are more important than non-flying five and six drops. I expect Esper to be common to bridge black answers with the Azorius evasive creatures.

Top Commons
1. Grotesque Demise - Exiling three power creatures trades up well for four drops and fliers
2. Summary Judgement - Another removal spell that trades up well, might take a hit or a chump to trade way up.
3. Imperious Oligarch - Great two drop in a format where good twos are premium.
4. Grasping Thrull - I underrated how important finishers are, this is that and some life to help your removal.
5. Consign to the Pit - Diminishing returns, expensive, still just kills anything.
6. Final Payment - Same as above, but multiples is more likely an issue.
7. Impassioned Orator - Incidental life gain offsets Final Payment and Summary Judgement, good two drop.
8.  Senate Griffin - Flying win conditions are hard to find for Orzhov. Next tier of cards is mostly replaceable.

Top Uncommons
1. Ministrant of Obligation - Beyond dumb. Trades too easily, recurs well.
2. Mortify - Just good, but more commons replace removal than Ministrant.
3. Consecrate // Consume - Kill spell that gains life, but it misses Guildmages. Hits good fliers though.
4. Basilica Bell-Haunt - Good size, card advantage, and life gain are all strong, but not game breaking.
5. Sky Tether - Orzhov isn't really winning on the ground, so this is one mana mostly kill a thing.
Honorable Mentions: Syndicate Guildmage, Orzhov Enforcer

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