Wednesday, January 30, 2019

What's the Deal with Ill-Gotten Inheritance


From my set review - F , "NOPE"

I might have been a little off on this one. People have certainly figured out Ill-Gotten Inheritance is an actual card in Ravnica Allegiance draft.

At the same time, we probably have some over adjustment to it not being a complete dud. Listening to Allied Strategies, the pinnacle Magic: the Gathering nonsense-strategy hybrid podcast, talk about Rakdos last week all three cohosts agreed they felt the card was overrated. At least one of them has a track record of being reasonably correct, and I'll add a fourth voice to the pile.

Ill-Gotten Inheritance is a good card, but it is much more situational than people currently believe. Let's walk through it all so you can understand when and why Ill-Gotten Inheritance is good.

Why is this Good?




On the surface, Ill-Gotten Inheritance looks like a bunch of cards that have never really been that good in Limited. 

The whole "winning at 1 life is still winning" is probably most true in Limited. Unlike Constructed, there isn't a surplus of ways to convert your cards directly to damage, so you have to go through creature combat which automatically brings you into the card counting, mana efficiency style stuff that makes up normal draft.

So, when you just have one effect like Soul Feast in your deck, it is only good if you can deal the first bulk amount of damage with your normal cards. The life gain shouldn't matter, as often if your opponent had the creatures to deal the first nineteen they can deal the next four. The reverse is also true: if you could deal sixteen couldn't another random card deal the last four that also has applications in the midgame creature battles?


We have also seen low damage, repeated ping effects a bunch. Again, they fail the creature comparison. A creature for the same cost does more damage, can battle defensively when you fall behind, and more. They also have an issue where if you draw them later on you almost surely aren't getting a full card of damage out of them as someone is probably ending the game before that point.


Back to Ill-Gotten Inheritance, and working backwards along these issues.

If you draw Ill-Gotten Inheritance late, it can almost immediately be used for the large drain effect. Holding out one more turn in most cases isn't a huge deal. So unlike Curse of the Pierced Heart, you will almost always cash this in for a real amount of life loss.

If you draw Ill-Gotten Inheritance early, it pays dividends unlike a Soul Feast. It has some incremental impact on the game, which is a big saving point compared to a true dead until you cast it card.

I talked about how if you could deal sixteen you should be able to deal another four, but often Ill-Gotten Inheritance can often deal much larger amounts of damage. If you have played aggressive Draft decks, it is really easy to imagine a scenario where you get to push in six or seven damage early, your opponent starts playing five drops, and your last attacks push in a few more damage. That's well within Ill-Gotten Inheritance range to close out. It's more like drawing two Soul Feasts, at which point you are much closer to a game where you can afford to directly convert cards to damage and add up to 20.


If you want a more holistic view, think about the front half of it as Healer's Hawk. Then imagine that Healer's Hawk has a cantrip built in to draw exactly a Soul Feast. If you consider that it costs about two mana to add a cantrip to a card (especially if it always draws a spell) and that Return to Ravnica had a two mana Healer's Hawk that was still good, four mana for Ill-gotten Inheritance makes sense for playability.

But wait, didn't both Healer's Hawk and Daggerdrome Imp have synergy boosting them? Where's the Mentor or Scavenge here amplifying Ill-Gotten Inheritance?


The obvious one is Spectacle. I think by now everyone has gotten the memo that Spectacle isn't quite a cascading, run away game mechanic that promotes one drops all over. The best Spectacle cards are things like Blade Juggler that just promote card advantage at a good rate.

Ill-Gotten Inheritance always enabling Spectacle means a lot for these exact cards. The mana refund in the future often opens up turns where you play multiple spells, often just recouping the tempo loss from playing the Ill-Gotten Inheritance. The card advantage does more of the same, making the fact you are "down a card" on an enchantment that can't block matter less.

But Dead Revels in particular deserves a look. Like I said, Ill-Gotten Inheritance is at its best when you have done the first twelve or so damage to them. One of the ways to do this is just throw creatures into combat and keep doing it. Some will trade, some will just die, but as long as you started ahead and keep playing more often you can milk a few extra damage and close the gap to zero. Dead Revels at its Spectacle costs makes it easy to keep chaining bodies onto the battlefield, and Ill-Gotten Inheritance assures you can rebuild this way even if an attack goes bad and you face a turn of being brick walled.


Afterlife promotes similar plans. Your creature attacks, maybe it dies, but in the process it leaves around more and harder to block attackers. The blocker churn of afterlife also makes extending the game once things gum down too much to chip in damage easier, allowing Ill-Gotten Inheritance to slowly finish the job.

What's the Catch?


Almost everything that goes wrong with Ill-Gotten Inheritance comes from the fact that while it is very good at dealing seven or eight damage, it is really bad at dealing seventeen or eighteen damage. 

You can think of this as a rate over time issue. The closer it rounds to the one damage a turn even after the Soul Feast is added in, the worse Ill-Gotten Inheritance is. If it's dealing eight total damage that's a two point drain a turn. If it's dealing eighteen that's barely over 1.25 damage a turn. 

The rest of the issues are related to people outpacing the one damage a turn drain. You are making an assumption playing the card that the pre-Soul Feast effect is adding significant value, and sometimes there isn't time for that.


The general statement "Ill-Gotten Inheritance is bad against large aggressive creatures" is often repeated. It's not wrong, but here's why.

The obvious issue is just the raw sizing outpacing one damage a turn. If you are taking eight from two Frenzied Arynx, you are just going to die before your damage dealing accumulates.

The secondary issue is the effective "defensive speed" of some of these cards. Earlier in talking about throwing away attackers for damage I mentioned the idea of a five drop starting to obsolete some of your early creatures. When instead of it being a five drop it's a four drop, the amount of damage you are dealing massively drops. 

Imagine a game where you lead on a two drop like Plague Wight, they don't match it, then you pair drops that trade up the curve. If turn five is the first point they have something like Azorius Knight-Arbiter that just eats an attacker, they have taken six extra damage from the Plague Wight before reestablishing creature parity. If it's a four drop, that's damage saved but also the stall hitting a turn before a reasonable two spell turn for the aggressive deck would kick in. We see similar effects with Standard aggro decks falling apart when they are faced with an effective blocker early as opposed to something that just trades.


The other issue is that there is a TON of white life gain in Ravnica Allegiance. I've played games of Azorius versus Rakdos where I've started from near dead to Ill-Gotten Inheritance, then recovered all the way back to worrying more about decking than damage. 

This is just forcing the game to come closer to their Ill-Gotten Inheritance needing to deal twenty damage scenario where it just isn't good. Grasping Thrull might be the pinnacle of both main issues, extending the amount of time it takes for Ill-Gotten Inheritance to kill you while also really reducing the amount of time the Ill-Gotten Inheritance player has to live to extract value from it.

Parting Examples




Not to be obvious, but this deck really wanted an Ill-Gotten Inheritance. Constantly enabling Spectacle would allow for massive card advantage chains off all seven(!) cards I have that are Spectacle two-for-ones. The life gain helps offset the Blade Juggler life loss, a ton of cards are adding up chip shot damage to let Inheritance close out the game, and the deck has a number of ways to cover large on defense. Honestly, you are fine throwing two things under the Frenzied Arynx bus to trade here because long term you are going to grind yourself right back out of the hole. I'm currently 2-0 with this deck, but one match was partially won by figuring out how I would time Theater of Horrors to maximize damage before I deck. I'm sure another long term burn spell would have made that whole nonsense much easier.
When showing people my Sealed deck from Grand Prix New Jersey, I got a lot of comments that I should play Ill-Gotten Inheritance. This is exactly the kind of deck that shouldn't play the card.

I'm never dealing the first twelve points of damage with this deck unless I'm in a position to deal all of the damage. Ill-Gotten Inheritance is spending a card and a bunch of mana to slowly gain life. I sideboarded it in once or twice where that was good against opponents, namely against Electrodominance or their own Ill-Gotten Inheritance, but it wasn't close to good enough to start.

Ill-Gotten Inheritance serves an important role as finisher and enabler. Just don't throw it in every deck you play, and understand how having it impacts how you want to be playing the games and building your deck.

My current regrade:

C+, powerful tool to close out aggressive starts but all the obvious issues with the card still exist.

Wednesday, January 23, 2019

Ravnica Allegiance Draft #1 - Watch the Wheel

Quicker post this week going over my first Magic Online Ravnica Allegiance draft. I ended up going 1-2 with this, so I want to analyze what might have gone wrong.

The full draft log is below, but the short version is that I started Orzhov, quickly started taking Simic or Gruul cards avoiding Azorius due to passing multiple Azorius Skyguard, but an Imperious Oligarch wheeled and I moved hard into Orzhov and ended up fighting over a medium deck.

My win was against one of the other Orzhov drafters in my pod. I think they were the player on my left pack one and they kinda meandered into getting cut in it? The losses were to two really powerful multi-color decks, one of which literally just ground me down with Clear the Mind and Prying Eyes because none of my cards could attack into Concordia Pegasus. Ok, some could but they got Lawmage's Binding'ed.

There's three things that could be right based on this.

-Orzhov is baseline at a disadvantage against multi-color decks because it is trying to out attrition the pile of good cards and powerful card draw. I don't think this is an unreasonable take.

-Because the format is a bit more flexible than Guilds of Ravnica, I should have just taken one of the early Azorius Skyguards as a signal. Even if I am cut pack two I can bridge the gap to Esper or Bant.

-Wheeling Imperious Oligarch was an anomaly and I should have paid more attention to all the packs without black or white cards. I had the exact opposite experience at the RIW Prerelease Draft Invitational though that turned out well (about an hour into this video), but notably there other black cards came around and I had previously taken two Orzhov Guildgates. The two missing black cards should have been a sign if I had any doubts.

I'm assuming not picking up on this third point well was my failure. I do have a solid methodology on tracking wheels usually, but I really wasn't implementing it in these early drafts. Considering that directional signals are so important in guild sets and trickier to parse out of multicolored cards, I should go back to doing this:

In general, trying to figure out what seven cards everyone else is going to take is a lost cause. Saying "I think this random card will wheel" is not reliable pack one unless it's some marginal sideboard effect.

Instead, focus on the general contents of the pack by color. Remembering a few numbers is pretty easy, then on the way back see what was taken. You can also try to think of the relative quality of cards across those colors to see if people are dipping into mediocre cards, implying a color is fairly contested. On the flip side, if the only cards of a color are really good and they don't wheel it means nothing. Feel free to discount actually terrible cards from this, like Deface.


  Pack 1 pick 1:







  My Pick:







I don't think this is especially close. Pestilent Spirit is basically impossible to block, trades up, and has the marginal upside of the spell-deathtouch ability. I think Azorius Skyguard is the second best option, followed by the other multi-colored cards Clan Guildmage then Imperious Oligarch.

Checking the color spread: W-1, U-1, B-2, R-3, G-2, Multi 3. It feels like there's no chance any of those multicolored cards wheels, and the white card not wheeling isn't a big signal.

  Pack 1 pick 2:







  My Pick:








Another easy pick. Just the best removal in a format populated by many powerful enchantments.

Card counts: W-1, U-2, B-3, R-3 (but they suck), G-2

  Pack 1 pick 3:







  My Pick:







Grotesque Demise lines up with my early picks. With an uncommon and rare missing, it's hard to read Azorius Skyguard as a big signal, and I'm not even 100% sure it is better.


  Pack 1 pick 4:







  My Pick:







Again I don't know if Sunder Shaman is actually better than Azorius Skyguard, but after passing two other Azorius Skyguards I didn't want to fight over the guild when another reasonable option existed.


  Pack 1 pick 5:







  My Pick:







I think I was wrong to downgrade Skatewing Spy in my prerelease reevaluation post. It sure isn't Abzan Falconer, but it's close enough. I like it better than Incubation // Incongruity if I branch away to the Gruul-Simic corner, and I think both are better than taking an Orzhov Guildgate and sticking with my colors.


  Pack 1 pick 6:







  My Pick:







I should have taken Senate Griffin. Dead Revels is pretty good in Orzhov, but Senate Griffin is not significantly worse and is much more likely to make my deck if do something like swap to Simic.


  Pack 1 pick 7:







  My Pick:







Same pick as before, better than Slimebind by a lot.


  Pack 1 pick 8:







  My Pick:







At this point I'm dipping into Simic. I guess worth noting none of  the prior Guildgates were taken.


  Pack 1 pick 9:







  My Pick:







Orzhov is open, but black isn't? Oddly Undercity Scavenger and Ill-gotten Inheritance are both gone but this isn't.

Checking the color spread: was W-1, U-1, B-2, R-3, G-2, Multi 3.  Now.... U-1, R-2, G-2? While we did pass a Clan Guildmage, it looks like red and green are fairly open. Black is definitely contested, and Undercity Scavenger disappearing should be a hint someone is going Orzhov as it needs the afterlife sacrifice fodder (seven mana with Act of Treason is a no-go).

I think that given the knowledge my pack two white seems like a disaster after passing all the Azorius Skyguards and that black is just going to be non-existent I should have taken Steeple Creeper or Faerie Duelist and just forced my way into Simic, but without a real multi-color signpost anywhere previously I was uncertain.




  Pack 1 pick 10:







  My Pick:







Possible two-for-one trick, sure.

Card counts: were W-1, U-2, B-3, R-3 (but they suck), G-2
Card counts: U-1, B-1, R-1 (but they suck), G-2

Jeez I should have pushed into Simic.

  Pack 1 pick 11:







  My Pick:







I've enjoyed this as a blocker against Gruul.


  Pack 1 pick 12:







  My Pick:







Generic six drop that isn't much worse than other sixes.


  Pack 1 pick 13:







  My Pick:







Don't need two sixes, Orzhov can have a sacrifice subtheme.


  Pack 1 pick 14:







  My Pick:










  Pack 1 pick 15:







  My Pick:










  Pack 2 pick 1:







  My Pick:







Not great but reasonable removal over not great but reasonable creatures (Carrion Imp and Debtor's Transport)


  Pack 2 pick 2:







  My Pick:







This is a reasonable finisher, as many people have found out. I think I should have just taken the splashable removal spell or Senate Guildmage as a high payoff card, but I was afraid of Azorius being cut and not having a second reason to splash the color.


  Pack 2 pick 3:







  My Pick:







Not phenomenal, merely very very good. Should be obvious to take your CCDD costed uncommon in guild.


  Pack 2 pick 4:







  My Pick:







Very splashable finisher over..... basically nothing? Arrester's Zeal feels replaceable in Orzhov because all the creatures are replaceable and you aren't saving a relevant body with it. Also your giant stacks of removal mean using it to kill something bigger matters less.


  Pack 2 pick 5:







  My Pick:







I'm much happier with this six drop than Watchful Giant, especially with Dead Revels. I think you can argue for Concordia Pegasus or Bring to Trial though as I have a replacement level six drop already so the small upgrade matters less.


  Pack 2 pick 6:







  My Pick:







Pretty sure this is wrong and that Senate Griffin is better. I'm locked Orzhov enough that I don't need the Guildgate, even with Basillica Bell-haunt's mana requirements.


  Pack 2 pick 7:







  My Pick:






I like the low drop that trades up more than a really conditional trick, especially when I already have conditional spells like Dead Revels and Ill-gotten Inheritance in my draft already.



  Pack 2 pick 8:







  My Pick:






Pretty happy to play a two drop that buries aggressive and evasive opponents in races.



  Pack 2 pick 9:







  My Pick:







Already have six drops, don't need more.


  Pack 2 pick 10:







  My Pick:






Also already have five drop blockers (two Catacomb Crocodile), so better six drops it is.



  Pack 2 pick 11:







  My Pick:







Haazda Officer is a really mediocre three drop. Orzhov Racketeers is a really reasonable five drop that layers well with my other afterlife cards.


  Pack 2 pick 12:







  My Pick:







Maybe I'll splash?


  Pack 2 pick 13:







  My Pick:









  Pack 2 pick 14:







  My Pick:










  Pack 2 pick 15:







  My Pick:










  Pack 3 pick 1:







  My Pick:







My deck is generally short on finishers, but high on dorks that get thrown away to chip shot a game down.


  Pack 3 pick 2:







  My Pick:







Already have two Carrion Imps, need a three drop more.


  Pack 3 pick 3:







  My Pick:







Already have a ton of 2/3 fliers, could use a 2 drop.


  Pack 3 pick 4:







  My Pick:







Wish I could Gateway Plaza to splash anything relevant.


  Pack 3 pick 5:







  My Pick:








I'm fine playing a seven drop in this format, and this one definitely kills people.

  Pack 3 pick 6:







  My Pick:







See previous comment about wishing I had anything to splash off Plaza.


  Pack 3 pick 7:







  My Pick:







This is not a thing I would splash off Plaza.


  Pack 3 pick 8:







  My Pick:










  Pack 3 pick 9:







  My Pick:










  Pack 3 pick 10:







  My Pick:










  Pack 3 pick 11:







  My Pick:










  Pack 3 pick 12:







  My Pick:







Uhh what....


  Pack 3 pick 13:







  My Pick:










  Pack 3 pick 14:







  My Pick:










  Pack 3 pick 15:







  My Pick:










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